Key Takeaways
• US tariffs up to 145% have sharply increased import costs on many Chinese goods since late April 2025.
• De minimis exemption ends May 2, requiring all Chinese parcels to undergo full customs checks and pay taxes.
• E-commerce air cargo from China to US dropped 50%, prompting widespread charter flight cancellations and airline route changes.
In late April 2025, a sudden drop in e-commerce volumes from China 🇨🇳 to the United States 🇺🇸 has triggered mass cancellations of air cargo charter flights. This sharp downturn follows important changes in US 🇺🇸 trade policy, including new tariffs and the end of a rule that had made it much easier for small packages to enter the United States 🇺🇸 without extra taxes or checks. Retailers and shipping firms are now bracing for a bumpy ride, with worries over empty shelves and big delays just as the busy back-to-school and holiday seasons approach.
Why Are So Many Air Cargo Charter Flights From China 🇨🇳 Being Cancelled?
Several big drivers are behind the collapse of air cargo charter flights from China 🇨🇳 to the United States 🇺🇸. These flights, which had long been reliable for speedy delivery of online orders, now face falling demand and growing costs.
1. High New US 🇺🇸 Tariffs
The first big change is the introduction of new US tariffs, which are taxes placed on certain imports from China 🇨🇳. As reported by VisaVerge.com, these tariffs now reach as high as 145% for many goods. What that means is, for every $100 of some products coming into the country, importers may now have to pay an extra $145 in taxes. These higher costs have hit both Chinese 🇨🇳 sellers and American buyers hard, causing many to pause or pull back on new shipments while they wait for clearer trade rules.
The uncertainty has created a mood of caution. Major shippers are delaying or canceling orders, wanting to see how much these new charges will really cost and whether they will last.
2. The End of De Minimis Exemption
For years, a rule called the “de minimis exemption” allowed small packages—those valued at under $800—from China 🇨🇳 and nearby Hong Kong 🇭🇰 to enter the United States 🇺🇸 without special checks or added duties. Online sellers relied on this rule to send millions of parcels quickly and cheaply by air. Most of these shipments went through simplified customs procedures, saving time and money for companies and customers alike.
That all changes on May 2, when the United States 🇺🇸 ends this exemption for packages from China 🇨🇳. After that, all parcels—even small, low-value orders—must clear full customs inspection and pay taxes. This creates new paperwork and extra costs for both businesses and shoppers. Industry researchers say this move alone could reduce e-commerce airfreight demand from China 🇨🇳 by up to 60% as we reach the middle of the second quarter of 2025.
3. E-Commerce Volumes Plunge
Together, the new tariffs and the loss of the de minimis rule have caused e-commerce shipments from China 🇨🇳 to plummet. Since mid-April, shipment volumes have dropped by about 50% compared with the same time last year. Airlines and charter companies, such as Air China and China Cargo Airlines, are responding fast—many have canceled existing flights or are looking at shifting their cargo to other, more stable markets like Mexico 🇲🇽 and Latin America.
How The Cancellations Are Playing Out
Air cargo charter flights were once the lifeline for fast cross-border delivery, especially for e-commerce, but that has changed overnight.
- Dozens of charters canceled: Since late April, major airlines have already stopped dozens of chartered flights between China 🇨🇳 and the United States 🇺🇸. More cancelations are expected in the coming weeks, especially as policy changes take full effect in May.
– E-commerce platforms halt shipments: Many top shopping platforms have paused shipments using the common “T86” customs entry type, which was tied to the old de minimis rule. This means American customers are seeing fewer product listings, slower delivery times, and sometimes higher prices. - Amazon’s FBA keeps going (for now): Some shipments handled by Amazon’s Fulfilled by Amazon (FBA) program are still moving, but overall volume is much lower than normal, especially for this time of year, which usually sees a rush of goods ahead of the back-to-school and holiday peaks.
- Airlines redirect flights: With less business from the United States 🇺🇸, some airlines are sending their freighter capacity to places like Mexico 🇲🇽 or throughout Latin America, where the demand for fast delivery remains stronger.
Here’s a quick snapshot of the main changes:
| Impact Area | Change Observed |
|---|---|
| Charter flight ops | Dozens canceled since late April |
| E-com parcel volume | Down about 50% year-on-year since mid-April |
| Carrier response | Freighter services cut or redirected to other regions |
| Alternative markets | More flights to Mexico 🇲🇽 and Latin America |
What’s Behind the Shift Toward Mexico 🇲🇽 and Latin America?
As the United States 🇺🇸 becomes a tougher market due to new tariffs and customs rules, some air cargo companies are looking for new places to send their planes and their parcels. Mexico 🇲🇽 and Latin American countries are at the top of the list. This is because:
- E-commerce in these countries is growing quickly, and shoppers there are eager to get products delivered fast.
- Some US-based companies are moving their supply chains closer to Mexico 🇲🇽 (“nearshoring”), so planes that once carried goods from China 🇨🇳 to the United States 🇺🇸 are now carrying goods from China 🇨🇳 to Mexico 🇲🇽, or from Mexican factories to the US 🇺🇸.
This shift highlights how global businesses can change direction quickly in search of more stable or growing markets.
Impact on Retailers and Supply Chains in the United States 🇺🇸
The sudden pause or cancellation of so many air cargo charter flights between China 🇨🇳 and the United States 🇺🇸 is not just a problem for the airlines. It’s affecting the entire chain—from warehouse workers and truck drivers to major retailers and shoppers.
Warnings From Retailers
Big names like Walmart and Target are raising red flags. They warn that if these supply disruptions continue into the main spring and summer shipping months, US 🇺🇸 stores could see empty shelves during back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. These are make-or-break moments for many retailers, who count on having fully stocked aisles when customers need them most.
Port Data Supports the Downturn
It’s not just air freight that’s feeling the pinch. American port operators, who handle the movement of goods arriving by ship, are reporting sharp drops in bookings out of Chinese ports. This matches the fall in airfreight volumes and suggests the slowdown is part of a broader change in global trade.
Costs Reach Record Highs for Chinese Exporters
Both new tariffs and the extra work required to clear customs without the de minimis shortcut mean Chinese 🇨🇳 exporters now face the highest costs to reach US 🇺🇸 shoppers in decades. Some say these hurdles are as tough as what businesses faced during the Great Depression. Costs are rising both because of the extra taxes (often more than 10%) and the loss of quick customs clearance. In the past, fast and cheap air cargo charter flights kept prices down. Now, shipping goods is slower, more complicated, and much more expensive.
What Comes Next: An Uncertain Outlook
With all these changes, what should businesses, workers, and shoppers expect in the months ahead? Industry experts expect a wild ride—and continued uncertainty.
More Delays Likely as Customs Gets Busy
When the United States 🇺🇸 ends the de minimis rule for China 🇨🇳, more parcels will need to pass through full customs checks. If US 🇺🇸 customs staff and systems aren’t ready, it could trigger long delays at airports and warehouses, making it slower for orders to reach shoppers.
For official details about these customs changes, you can check the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) website.
Spot Rates Will Fluctuate
Air cargo “spot rates”—the prices airlines charge to carry goods on short notice—are predicted to jump at first due to congestion. But after the initial wave, as more carriers pull back or shift their planes to busier markets, these rates could drop sharply. This makes it very hard for businesses to plan and set prices.
Some Product Categories May Stay Safe
Interestingly, not all types of goods are affected equally. Some products, such as smartphones, are expected to remain exempt from the highest tariffs. This could keep air shipments of these items steady, at least for now, even as other product categories decline.
The Broader Picture: What Does This Mean for Global Trade?
The rapid drop in air cargo charter flights and e-commerce volumes between China 🇨🇳 and the United States 🇺🇸 is one of the most dramatic slowdowns in years. This isn’t just a blip. It could mark a turning point in how global businesses move goods and how everyday shoppers get what they need.
For many companies, the focus on fast-moving e-commerce from China 🇨🇳 helped set up large logistics operations that are now being forced to change or shrink. Some might move their factories to Latin America or even bring some production closer to the United States 🇺🇸 in order to avoid higher costs and delays.
Consumers in the United States 🇺🇸, meanwhile, could face fewer choices, longer shipping times, and higher prices. Retailers may need to find new suppliers or change how they manage their stock. Workers in logistics—like those flying, sorting, and trucking air cargo shipments—may also feel the pinch if reduced volumes spread to other job areas.
What Should Businesses and Shoppers Do Now?
With the business environment shifting so quickly, everyone involved in shipping, buying, or selling goods between China 🇨🇳 and the United States 🇺🇸 needs to adapt quickly:
- Businesses should review their supply chains and look for backup plans in case further tariffs, customs delays, or flight cancelations happen.
- Retailers need to talk clearly with suppliers and shipping companies to try and avoid critical shortages during peak seasons. Buying early or from new markets may help reduce risk.
- Shoppers should watch for changes in product availability, shipping times, and prices. Planning ahead, especially for big purchases or popular back-to-school items, could make a difference.
In Summary
In just a few weeks, new US 🇺🇸 tariffs and rules about customs have caused a steep decline in air cargo charter flights leaving China 🇨🇳 for the United States 🇺🇸. This has led to a 50% drop in e-commerce volumes, dozens of flight cancelations, and worries for retailers and customers alike.
The move marks one of the largest and fastest retrenchments of transpacific express shipping in recent memory. As US 🇺🇸 customs tightens, and e-commerce volumes continue to shrink, shippers and sellers are scrambling to find new paths, and American shoppers face an uncertain future for international online shopping.
Even as some airlines pivot to new markets in Mexico 🇲🇽 and Latin America, questions remain about how quickly logistics groups, retailers, and governments can adjust to this new normal. For the latest updates on customs rules and shipping questions, regularly check websites such as US Customs and Border Protection.
With so many moving parts—tariffs, new customs requirements, falling shipment volumes, and changing airline routes—the global supply chain is in for ongoing change throughout the rest of 2025.
Learn Today
De Minimis Exemption → A US rule allowing small packages under $800 to enter without duties or full customs checks; ended May 2025 for China.
Tariffs → Government-imposed taxes on imported goods, drastically increased by the US to as high as 145% on certain Chinese products.
Air Cargo Charter Flights → Non-scheduled freight flights hired for transporting goods quickly, key in e-commerce between China and the US.
Spot Rates → The price airlines charge for airfreight on short notice, subject to big fluctuations with sudden supply/demand shifts.
Nearshoring → The business strategy of moving manufacturing or supply chains closer to the target market, such as US companies shifting production to Mexico.
This Article in a Nutshell
In April 2025, US trade policy shifts caused a 50% plunge in e-commerce air shipments from China. Major new tariffs and ending the de minimis rule forced mass cancelations of cargo flights. Retailers now face likely delays, higher costs, and uncertain supply chains heading into peak shopping seasons.
— By VisaVerge.com
Read more:
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• Trump signals major cuts to 145% China tariffs but says they stay
• United States reduces port fees on China-built ships
• China turns to Canadian oil amid US trade war tensions
• Trump’s 245% Tariff Escalates US-China Trade Tensions
