U.S. Jobs Report Struggles to Reflect Recent Immigration Surge

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Key Takeaways

• The U.S. labor force is projected to grow by 5.2 million by 2033 due to increased immigration, per CBO estimates.
• Immigration boosted U.S. job creation to 100,000 jobs per month in 2023–2024, doubling expectations, according to Hamilton Project data.
• Foreign-born workers’ participation rates reached 67.0% in June 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, contrasting native-born worker participation stagnation.

The U.S. labor market has experienced a wave of changes driven by an immigration surge over the past few years. However, government data initially struggled to keep up with these shifts, prompting an overdue correction in how the labor force and employment growth are evaluated. This surge has resulted in substantial economic and workforce impacts, clearly seen through its role in shaping job growth, labor force participation, and broader economic trends.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has made it clear just how far-reaching the effects of the immigration surge are. According to the CBO, the U.S. labor force in 2033 is now expected to grow by an additional 5.2 million people, thanks largely to higher net immigration levels. This adjustment highlights the critical role immigrants play in sustaining the country’s workforce and shaping its economic outlook.

U.S. Jobs Report Struggles to Reflect Recent Immigration Surge

One major adjustment in government modeling was triggered by new data that included migration trends along the southwest border. This allowed economists to better measure the scale of recent immigration inflows. The higher number of foreign-born workers entering the workforce has driven job creation and contributed significantly to population and labor force growth, particularly as the U.S. recovers from the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, data from the Hamilton Project points out that higher immigration increased U.S. payroll job creation by 70,000 new jobs per month in 2022. By 2023 and early 2024, this impact had grown to 100,000 new jobs added per month, effectively doubling job growth expectations during that period compared to scenarios without the immigration influx.

As of June 2024, foreign-born workers made up over 19% of the U.S. labor force, with more than 32 million individuals, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This group has shown a faster recovery in labor force participation rates than their native-born counterparts. While participation rates for native-born workers remain slightly below pre-pandemic levels, immigrants have not only regained their pre-COVID momentum but surpassed it. From a low of 61.8% during the early months of the pandemic, the participation rate for foreign-born workers climbed to 67.0% by June 2024. This figure exceeded the pre-pandemic benchmark of 65.8% recorded in June 2019.

In 2023, foreign-born individuals made up 18.6% of the U.S. civilian labor force, increasing from 18.1% the previous year. Though unemployment rates for foreign-born workers rose slightly from 3.4% in 2022 to 3.6% in 2023, they remained comparable to unemployment rates for native-born workers, which stood steady at 3.6%. Demographically, Hispanics represented nearly half (47.6%) of the immigrant workforce in 2023, while Asians accounted for a quarter.

There are notable gender differences in labor participation rates among immigrants. In 2023, foreign-born men were much more likely to be active in the labor force (77.5%) compared to native-born men (66.1%). On the other hand, women born abroad had a somewhat lower participation rate (56.1%) than their native-born counterparts (57.6%).

The types of jobs held by foreign-born workers also differ from those of native-born workers. In 2023, many immigrants filled positions in service-related fields, construction, maintenance, production, transportation, and material-handling occupations. By contrast, native-born workers were more concentrated in management, professional fields, and office roles.

The growth in immigration has been a key driver of labor market expansion in recent years, although future projections suggest a tapering of this trend. Between November 2022 and November 2023, foreign-born individuals made up roughly 25% of total labor force growth. However, in the year that followed, the foreign-born labor force continued to grow, adding more than 765,000 individuals. At the same time, the U.S.-born labor force saw a decline of more than 500,000 workers. Since May 2024, the native labor force has shrunk month after month.

This trend of rising immigration’s impact is not expected to last indefinitely. The Congressional Budget Office estimates show that net migration into the U.S. will decline from 3.3 million in 2024 to just 1.1 million by 2027, reflecting a return to pre-pandemic migration patterns. Factors such as changes in government immigration policies and broader geopolitical conditions may influence these shifts.

One challenge in analyzing the immigration surge has been discrepancies between various sources of government data. For instance, the Current Population Survey (CPS) recorded a net increase of 3.94 million immigrants living in the U.S. between January 2022 and October 2024. However, the CBO assessed the same period and reported a dramatically higher net figure of 8.65 million people. This undercount in the CPS data has implications, particularly for measuring unemployment rates and labor market participation.

By October 2024, the CPS officially recorded 4.91 million immigrants who had entered the U.S. since January 2022. These individuals represented 1.9% of the labor force. However, potential undercounts—when adjusting for the higher immigration rates suggested by CBO—could raise this figure to 3.7%, a sizable difference. Using an alternative projection method to include “missing” immigrants not fully recorded in the CPS, statisticians estimated a slight increase to the national unemployment rate. This adjustment suggested that the unemployment rate might have been 4.24% in October 2024 rather than the official figure of 4.14%. Excluding all recent immigrants, on the other hand, would have reduced October’s unemployment rate to 4.04%.

Despite these adjustments, the influence of newly arrived immigrants remains modest relative to the entire U.S. workforce. Newly arrived immigrants’ smaller overall proportion of active workers means their impact on nationwide unemployment figures is limited. However, as policymakers and agencies invest in improving their data collection, future job market reports are more likely to reflect the full scope of the immigration surge. This accuracy will be essential for government officials, businesses, and economists trying to understand trends and plan future initiatives.

Over the years, the U.S. economy has shown resilience partly because of its capacity to welcome immigrant workers. Estimates from industry and policy groups, such as those noted by the Hamilton Project, show how a steady influx of ready-to-work immigrants can improve job creation and economic growth overall. At a time when labor force participation among native-born workers has stagnated, the importance of foreign-born workers becomes even clearer.

Analysis from VisaVerge.com points out that foreign-born workers not only fill gaps in the labor force but also allow sectors like construction, services, and production to thrive. As these industries expand, their influence on the broader economy will likely grow. Policymakers should consider these factors when discussing regulatory changes or new immigration laws, especially when looking forward to years where labor shortages among native workers could persist.

In conclusion, the U.S. jobs report’s earlier omissions on the immigration surge served as a wake-up call, forcing the government to reevaluate the labor market’s evolving realities. Immigrant workers, especially foreign-born labor force participants, have played a critical role in boosting employment, participation rates, and total economic output. Projections may indicate milestones reverting to pre-pandemic norms, but the legacy of this wave of migration will continue to shape U.S. labor policy and decisions for years to come. Those interested in learning more about the labor statistics and the role of immigrants in the U.S. workforce can visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official website for the most up-to-date reports here.

Learn Today

Net Immigration → The difference between the number of people entering and leaving a country, resulting in overall population growth or decline.
Labor Force Participation Rate → The proportion of a population, aged 16 or older, that is working or actively looking for work.
Foreign-Born Workers → Individuals employed in a country who were born outside its borders, often playing key roles in workforce expansion.
Current Population Survey (CPS) → A monthly U.S. survey collecting labor market data, such as employment, unemployment, and workforce demographics.
Economic Output → The total value of goods and services produced within an economy over a specific period, indicating economic health.

This Article in a Nutshell

Immigration has reshaped the U.S. labor market, adding 5.2 million workers by 2033, per CBO estimates. Foreign-born workers now drive job creation and outpace native labor force recovery post-COVID. With immigrants filling crucial workforce gaps, their contributions bolster economic growth, underscoring the need for thoughtful immigration policies to sustain this momentum.
— By VisaVerge.com