Low Fertility Crisis: Can Immigration Save Canada’s Aging Workforce?

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Key Takeaways

• Canada’s fertility rate is 1.26 in 2023, far below the 2.1 replacement level, driving reliance on immigration for population growth.
• In 2024, Canada reduced permanent immigration by 20% and imposed deeper cuts on temporary migration due to public criticism.
• Prime Minister Trudeau resigned in 2024 amid low approval ratings; Conservatives propose linking immigration levels to infrastructure capacity.

Canada 🇨🇦 faces a significant demographic challenge shaped by two key trends: its persistently low fertility rate and the aging population of baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964). Together, these have profound implications for the labor market, economic development, and public services across the country. Statistics Canada reports that the national fertility rate was 1.26 children per woman in 2023. For context, this is far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, necessary to maintain a population without relying on immigration. Canada’s fertility rate is not only at a historic low but is also among the lowest in the world.

At the same time, Canada’s baby boomers, a uniquely large age group, are exiting the workforce at an accelerating rate. By 2025, boomers are estimated to range between the ages of 59 and 79, and two-thirds of them are already retired. With Canada’s average retirement age at 65.1, the final wave of this cohort will soon leave the job market. This shift creates a double burden: labor shortages in essential industries and increased demand on public services, such as healthcare, which must now cater to an older, more dependent population.

Low Fertility Crisis: Can Immigration Save Canada’s Aging Workforce?

Geographical Variations in Population Dynamics

Not all regions are equally impacted by these demographic changes. Fertility rates are generally lower in Canada’s large and mid-sized cities compared to smaller towns and rural areas, but urban centers offset this trend with robust internal migration and international immigration. Conversely, smaller cities and rural regions experience the dual challenge of low birth rates and significant population losses due to out-migration. These areas also tend to attract fewer international migrants, leaving them particularly vulnerable to population decline.

The Role of Immigration in Addressing Low Fertility

Immigration has become the cornerstone of Canada’s population and labor force growth. Between 2014 and 2024, the size of Canada’s labor force grew by 2.8 million people or 14.5 percent. However, this growth was entirely driven by migration, as the Canadian-born segment of the labor force remained stagnant or slightly decreased. Permanent immigration—the act of granting individuals permanent resident status—accounts for a significant portion of this migration. It enables newcomers to work, settle, and eventually apply for citizenship.

Temporary migrants—such as international students and temporary foreign workers—have also contributed to labor force expansion, and their numbers have grown significantly. In 2023, Canada registered its highest-ever population growth rate of 3.2 percent, driven almost entirely by migration. According to official data, 97.6 percent of this population growth stemmed from either permanent immigration or temporary migration.

Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister until 2025, oversaw policies that greatly increased immigration levels during his tenure. His Liberal government adopted ambitious annual targets for permanent immigrants, culminating in a record goal of 485,000 admissions for 2024. At the same time, temporary migration programs expanded rapidly, with over one million temporary visas issued in 2023 alone. By this year, the net population growth from temporary migration surpassed that of permanent immigration for the first time. However, this dramatic population increase came with its own set of challenges.

Balancing Economic Needs with Public Opinion

Historically, Canada has turned to immigration to address labor shortages and demographic challenges. For example, significant waves of immigration in the late 19th century were crucial for settling western Canada and building a workforce for industrial expansion. Similarly, post-World War II immigration played a key role in urbanization and fueling Canada’s service economy. During this earlier phase, immigration levels fluctuated but remained moderate, averaging 150,000 new permanent residents annually. This was adjusted to 250,000 immigrants annually in the late 20th century as alarm over low fertility began to grow.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration accelerated this trend. The government framed immigration as a tool for economic growth, emphasizing the need for skilled workers and entrepreneurs under its economic class pathways. Approximately 60 percent of permanent immigrants to Canada are admitted through these economic programs. Family reunification accounts for about 25 percent of admissions, while humanitarian cases, including refugees, make up the final 15 percent. All permanent residents are entitled to benefits such as up to 500 hours of free language training and employment assistance, demonstrating Canada’s commitment to helping newcomers integrate successfully.

However, public sentiment began to shift sharply in 2024. Concerns emerged that high levels of immigration had created a “population trap”—a scenario where the rapid pace of population growth outpaces the country’s ability to expand infrastructure and services. For instance, housing shortages and skyrocketing rental costs have been widely blamed on immigration-fueled demand. Public transportation, healthcare, and education systems have also struggled to keep up, contributing to frustration among Canadians. The term “broken immigration system” has gained traction in public discourse, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction.

Policy Adjustments in Immigration Levels

In response to mounting public criticism, Canada’s minister of immigration, refugees, and citizenship announced significant cuts to permanent immigration levels in 2024—by as much as 20 percent. Even deeper cuts were implemented for temporary migration programs, which had become a focal point of controversy. Shortly after unveiling these reductions and the new 2025-27 immigration levels plan, Prime Minister Trudeau admitted his government should have acted sooner to curb immigration levels. Facing historically low approval ratings, he announced his resignation less than two months later, altering the political landscape.

The Conservative Party, the opposition during Trudeau’s tenure and now leading in opinion polls, has pledged to tie immigration levels more closely to Canada’s ability to build housing and other critical infrastructure. If implemented, this policy would likely result in further reductions to both permanent and temporary migration numbers. This reflects a broader reevaluation by policymakers and voters alike about how best to balance the economic benefits of immigration with the challenges of community adaptation.

Canada’s Migration System: A Closer Look

For an international audience, it is important to understand key features of Canada’s immigration system, which has been heralded as one of the most “managed” migration systems globally. Each year, the responsible minister must present a comprehensive immigration plan to the public before November 1, specifying admission targets for various pathways—economic, family reunification, and humanitarian. In recent years, the government has extended this process to include three-year plans, offering both firm and notional targets for long-term strategizing. For the first time in 2024, a similar forward-looking plan was released for temporary migration levels.

By drawing clear distinctions between permanent and temporary pathways, Canada’s immigration system has focused largely on addressing labor market needs while also fulfilling humanitarian obligations. However, as reported by VisaVerge.com, the recent upheavals in public opinion and government policy signal a shift away from aggressive population growth strategies, at least for the short term.

Broader Implications for Canada and Beyond

Canada’s experience holds valuable lessons for other countries grappling with the dual challenge of low fertility and aging populations. Immigration has proven to be a powerful tool for sustaining economic growth and offsetting population decline, but it also requires careful management to ensure social cohesion and public support. The Canadian case demonstrates the importance of aligning immigration targets with infrastructure capacity, affordable housing, and public services.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s legacy in immigration is one of ambitious expansion, but it also underscores the complexities of navigating public opinion and practical realities. The balance between immigration as an economic necessity and as a source of societal tension is likely to remain at the forefront of Canadian policy debates in years to come.

For additional information on Canada’s current immigration policies and pathways, readers can visit the official website of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship.html).

In conclusion, Canada demonstrates how deeply interconnected demographic trends, economic policies, and immigration strategies are. Low fertility and an aging population highlight urgent labor needs that immigration can help meet. However, the demands of growth—whether for housing or healthcare—cannot be ignored. As Canada enters a new phase of immigration policy, it will serve as a key global example of how countries adapt to demographic pressures while staying responsive to public concerns.

Learn Today

Fertility Rate → The average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime in a specific region or population.
Replacement Level → The fertility rate required for a population to sustain itself without relying on migration (typically 2.1 children/woman).
Permanent Immigration → The process of granting foreign nationals the right to reside and work indefinitely in a new country.
Temporary Migration → The movement of people to a different country for a limited period, often for education, work, or seasonal labor.
Humanitarian Immigration → Admission of individuals seeking refuge or asylum due to war, persecution, or human rights violations in their home country.

This Article in a Nutshell

Canada’s aging population and record-low fertility rate profoundly shape its future. Immigration drives workforce growth, offsetting decline, but strains infrastructure and housing. Balancing economic benefits with public concerns is vital. As policy shifts curb migration levels, Canada exemplifies the challenge of aligning demographic needs with societal adaptability—a lesson for nations worldwide.
— By VisaVerge.com