IRCC Forecasts Work and Study Permit Holder Departures

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Key Takeaways

Canada plans to maintain non-permanent residents at 5% of the population with strategic outflows and inflows management.
Study permit reduction and stricter work permit criteria aim to optimize alignment with labor market needs.
Immigration Levels Plan 2025-2027 focuses on sustainable growth and resource allocation with strategic NPR targets.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) anticipates a major shift in the landscape of Canada’s non-permanent residents (NPRs) over the coming years. The country’s immigration department has outlined a plan to manage the population of NPRs, including work and study permit holders, who are currently residing in Canada on temporary visas. With both economic and infrastructure considerations in mind, the IRCC aims to maintain NPR levels at around 5% of Canada’s total population. This policy marks a strategic effort to balance immigration to ensure sustainable growth and societal integration.

Expected Outflows and Inflows of Non-Permanent Residents

IRCC Forecasts Work and Study Permit Holder Departures

According to the Annual Report on Immigration for 2024, the IRCC projects about 588,409 NPRs will either leave Canada or transition to permanent resident (PR) status by the end of 2024. Despite this outflow, Canada will witness a net increase of more than 299,216 NPRs by year’s end. By 2024, NPRs are expected to number approximately 2.9 million, accounting for 7.1% of the national population.

NPR Statistics Dashboard – VisaVerge.com

Expected NPRs by end of 2024

2.9M

7.1% of total population

Total NPR Outflows 2024

588,409

Net Change 2024

+299,216

NPR Population Trends

Looking ahead, the anticipated outflows over the next three years are revealing:

For 2025, expected outflows stand at 1,262,801, with a net decrease of 445,901 NPRs.
In 2026, outflows are projected to reach 1,104,658, maintaining a similar net decrease of 445,622.
By 2027, outflows are anticipated to be lower, at 875,179, leaving a minor net growth of 17,439.

Correspondingly, by 2027, the population of NPRs in Canada is projected to be around 2,086,916, forming 5% of the population.

In terms of inflows, the IRCC plans to welcome a combined total of 887,625 new NPRs by the end of 2024. Over the following three years, the projections are as follows:

In 2025, the target is 816,900 NPRs, with a focus on strategic needs.
For 2026, an intake of 659,036 NPRs is planned.
By 2027, the inflow will increase again to 892,568.

Specifically, inflows for study and work permits under targeted programs are pivotal. For instance, the International Mobility Program (IMP) and the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) aim to cater efficiently to labor market demands while managing entry.

Programs Affecting Work and Study Permits

Study Permits

Canada will reduce the count of study permits by 10%, targeting issuance at 437,000 for both 2025 and 2026, a decrease from 485,000 in 2024. This adjustment includes advanced learners, such as master’s and doctoral candidates, who now face stricter entry criteria, including the requirement to submit a provincial or territorial endorsement.

For international students, these changes may mean increased competition and rigorous assessments around their potential economic contribution post-study. The cap includes those aiming to acquire practical skills aligned with Canada’s economic needs.

Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWP) Changes

Modifications to the PGWP scheme will see heightened language requirements effective November 1, 2024. Graduates must meet new standards—level 7 Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) for university graduates and level 5 for college graduates. Additionally, PGWPs will be more selectively available, with paths limited to fields with labor market shortages, thereby promoting economic integration.

Restrictions for spouses’ work permits are more stringent. From 2025, only certain categories of spouses, including those tied to high-demand sectors or specific graduate programs, will receive work permissions. This strategy aims to optimize work permit issuance and align it closely with labor market needs.

Work Permits and Temporary Foreign Workers

The IRCC is also tailoring changes for temporary foreign workers through substantial revisions to the TFWP. These include:

Implementing a 10% cap for employers on low-wage TFW hiring to ensure Canadian workers’ opportunities are safeguarded.
Raising wages for high-wage streams by 20% as a move to uphold fair compensation practices.

These modifications reflect Canada’s broader adaptation to ongoing labor market conditions while simultaneously providing pathways for both domestic workers and temporary foreign labor.

Challenges Facing Work Permit Holders

Work permit holders, especially those on PGWPs nearing expiration, face significant challenges transitioning to permanent residency, exacerbated by a backlog of applications due to pandemic policies. Despite a historical transition rate of 40% within two years, the current environment mandates a new strategic approach from both residents and policymakers.

The IRCC aims to admit up to 500,000 permanent residents annually, with stringent criteria necessary to navigate the pathways to PR status effectively. As of recent policy shifts, securing permanent residency demands greater alignment between immigrant skills and Canada’s economic priorities.

Long-Term Strategy: Immigration Levels Plan 2025-2027

Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan through to 2027 underscores an ambitious restructuring of both permanent and temporary residency frameworks. First time ever, the plan incorporates strategic targets specifically for temporary residents, indicative of a broader transformation in migration policy.

From a projected 485,000 PR admissions in 2024, a subsequent decrease to 395,000 by 2025 sets in, continuing downward through 2027. Such steps are aimed at stabilizing growth while still meeting labor market and societal needs without overburdening resources like housing and healthcare.

Outlook for Study Permits and Temporary Foreign Workers

International students constitute a significant proportion—approximately 45%—of expected new NPR arrivals in 2025. These policies aim to harness educational pathways as avenues for economic contribution, balanced judiciously alongside other NPR categories to manage migration sustainably.

VisaVerge.com’s investigation reveals a dynamic immigration landscape that requires navigating various policy shifts. For context, further information can be accessed on Canada’s official government immigration website.

This ever-evolving landscape of NPR management and immigration policy indicates intentional shifts to balance economic inputs with infrastructural capacities, as the IRCC prioritizes integrative and sustainable immigration into Canada’s broader societal fabric.

Learn Today

Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs): Individuals residing temporarily in Canada, including those with work or study permits, but not permanent residents.
International Mobility Program (IMP): A Canadian initiative facilitating work permits without a Labour Market Impact Assessment for certain foreign workers.
Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB): A national standard in Canada for measuring English language proficiency, used especially in immigration and work permit assessments.
Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): A Canadian program allowing employers to hire foreign nationals for temporary work when Canadians are not available.
Permanent Residency (PR) Status: A legal status allowing a non-citizen to reside indefinitely in Canada, providing certain rights and privileges.

This Article in a Nutshell

Canada’s immigration landscape is undergoing strategic shifts, particularly in managing non-permanent residents (NPRs). With plans to cap NPR levels at 5% of the population, policies are increasingly focused on meeting economic needs. These changes aim to ensure sustainable growth, aligning residents’ skills with Canada’s labor market demands.
— By VisaVerge.com