Fewer Canadians Visiting Washington State After Years of Shifting Ties

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Key Takeaways

Peace Arch border traffic fell 45% in February 2025 compared to February 2024; other crossings saw 11-34% declines.
Canadians spent $1,083 per land visit historically; declines now threaten tax revenues for Washington’s border towns like Blaine.
Political tensions, tariffs, weak Canadian dollar, and stricter U.S. immigration enforcement deter Canadian visitors significantly.

Washington State 🇺🇸 has long been a gateway for Canadian 🇨🇦 visitors seeking shopping, leisure, and entertainment across the border. The interaction between Washington residents and Canadians has bolstered local economies, fostered cultural ties, and supported thriving border communities. However, this dynamic relationship appears to be undergoing a significant shift. Recent trends indicate a marked decline in Canadian visitors to Washington State, a phenomenon tied to a mix of political, economic, and policy-related factors. This article explores the causes behind this trend, its economic implications, and the broader context of immigration policies influencing cross-border movement.

Steep Declines in Border Traffic

Fewer Canadians Visiting Washington State After Years of Shifting Ties

The drop in foot and vehicular traffic at key border crossings illustrates how fewer Canadian visitors are traveling to Washington State. According to data from the Whatcom Council of Governments, traffic from British Columbia’s border to cities like Blaine, Bellingham, and Lynden has significantly reduced. The Peace Arch crossing, one of the busiest ports of entry, experienced a staggering 45% decline in southbound traffic during the Family Day long weekend in February 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier. The Pacific Highway reported a 34% decrease, while Sumas faced an 11% drop within the same timeframe.

The trend is not restricted to holiday peaks. A broad decline has been observed over the years, especially in the aftermath of President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. This pattern raises alarms among local officials and businesses who are accustomed to the consistent economic boost from Canadian land-border travelers.

Economic Effects on Washington State

Canadian visitors have historically contributed to the economic vitality of Washington’s border communities. Their spending directly supports shops, eateries, and small businesses. For example, U.S. International Trade Administration data from 2022 showed that Washington State was the third most visited state by Canadian land travelers, hosting 785,000 visitors. Canadians traveling to the U.S. by land spent, on average, $1,083 per visit. This spending has been crucial for areas like Blaine, with its proximity to the border, and Bellingham, a hub for shopping and dining.

Local officials are vocal about the potential consequences of this decline in traffic. Whatcom County Executive Satpal Sidhu noted that the current scenario reminded him of the economic hardships during the COVID-19 pandemic when similar disruptions lowered border activity. Retail, hospitality, and transportation businesses are bracing for revenue losses. For instance, Blaine Mayor Mary Lou Steward emphasized that Canadian shoppers account for a large share of the city’s tax revenue, and with limited options for increasing property taxes, the city depends heavily on sales tax collections. The worry goes beyond short-term losses; if trends persist, long-term impacts on community development and infrastructure funding could follow.

Causes of the Decline in Canadian Traffic

A combination of political, economic, and social factors is driving the reduction in Canadian visitors to Washington State. While it might seem like a temporary downturn, closer examination reveals several layered issues contributing to this trend:

Political Tensions: The inauguration of President Trump in 2025 coincided with rising friction between the U.S. and Canada. Strained diplomatic relations have created unease among Canadians traveling to the U.S., and rhetoric around issues like national security and immigration has added to these concerns.
Economic Struggles: A weak Canadian dollar compared to its U.S. counterpart has made shopping, dining, and even short trips to Washington considerably more expensive for Canadians, discouraging them from crossing the border.
Tariffs: Economic policies such as tariffs implemented under President Trump’s administration have worsened trade relations between the U.S. and Canada. These policies not only impact businesses but also discourage consumer travel.
Talk of Annexation: The notion of Washington State becoming the “51st state” by absorbing parts of Canada might be dismissed as rhetoric by some, but it has generated discomfort north of the border and strained relations further.
Strict Immigration Enforcement: Increased border scrutiny under President Trump’s administration has introduced additional hurdles for individuals crossing the border. For example, strengthened Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations and reduced protections for immigrants at sensitive locations have created an environment of caution, even for casual travelers.

Local Responses to Cross-Border Challenges

While federal policies and economic factors are largely beyond their control, local officials in Washington’s border communities are working hard to address the fallout. Municipalities like Blaine and towns near the Peace Arch welcome Canadian shoppers with open arms, emphasizing the community and cultural bonds they share. These efforts are aimed at mitigating the effects of broader tensions between the two nations. Cities like Blaine are already reporting softer sales and revenue, a worrying sign.

There is also a growing effort to remind Canadians of the benefits of shopping and sightseeing in Washington. By offering favorable exchange rates and promoting community-focused events, these towns hope to retain the loyalty of Canadian visitors.

Mary Lou Steward, Mayor of Blaine, highlighted how fragile this visitor economy is. While it is not clear whether recent decreases in revenue are attributable solely to fewer Canadian visitors or altered spending patterns by local shoppers, the impact is undeniable. Communities like Point Roberts, which is geographically dependent on cross-border traffic, have felt the pinch even more acutely, struggling to recover from prolonged periods of border closures during the pandemic.

Broader Immigration Context

The dip in Canadian visitation represents just one facet of a shifting immigration landscape. Washington State’s demographic and immigration policies, combined with federal-level changes under President Trump, create a complex picture of mobility trends.

Increased ICE Activity: The Trump administration’s immigration policies have led to heightened enforcement. In January 2025, ICE arrested nearly 1,200 individuals across the country in highly visible operations. Though these efforts predominantly target undocumented migrants, legal travelers may also perceive the atmosphere as being less friendly.
Canadian Immigration Adjustments: While border dynamics with Washington are changing, Canada is also adjusting its own immigration policies. Canada’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan has introduced sharp reductions in immigration numbers, signaling a shift in its longtime pro-immigration stance. Annual targets for 2025 have been adjusted downward to 395,000 permanent residents, reflecting a more cautious approach.
Temporary Resident Reductions: Similarly, Canada aims to lower temporary resident numbers to 5% of its total population by 2026, a significant change from prior percentages. This reduction may indirectly influence cross-border leisure travel as work permits and short-term visas become harder to obtain.
Foreign-Born Population in Washington State: Washington itself reflects the country’s evolving immigration landscape. As of 2022, 15.3% of the state’s population was foreign-born, with nearly half achieving naturalized citizenship. These figures highlight the continued importance of immigrants, both economically and culturally, to the region.

Moving Forward: Concerns and Hopes

Pro-immigration demonstrations in the U.S., including Washington, are now more prevalent than ever, outnumbering anti-immigration protests by an impressive ratio of 30 to 1. This groundswell of public support signals growing resistance to restrictive immigration enforcement policies, which may have ripple effects for bilateral relations.

Interestingly, deportation levels under President Trump’s administration during its early weeks remain comparable to those of previous administrations. However, sustained vigilance on the part of ICE and stricter border checks may erode goodwill between Canadian visitors and U.S. officials at the border.

Experts like Laurie Trautman of Western Washington University suggest that Washington State border towns need to adapt to structural shifts in cross-border behaviors. The COVID-19 pandemic already forced people to shop locally and reconsider their travel patterns, leaving lasting habits in its wake.

Conclusion

The decline in Canadian visitors presents Washington State and its border municipalities with significant challenges. Political discord under President Trump, coupled with economic pressures like tariffs and exchange rates, is reshaping a historically robust relationship. Local communities such as Blaine and Bellingham are doing their part to remain welcoming, but overarching federal measures and global economic factors make full recovery uncertain. The dynamic between Washington State and Canada stands as a vivid reminder that immigration and cross-border travel are deeply affected by policy decisions, diplomatic relations, and economic realities. For those seeking detailed, reliable immigration insights like this, VisaVerge.com remains an essential resource. To stay updated on immigration policy related to land borders, readers can visit U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Learn Today

Immigration Enforcement → Actions and policies implemented to regulate the movement of people across borders, often involving border checks and detentions.
Pro-Immigration Demonstrations → Public gatherings supporting immigration policies, highlighting migrants’ contributions and opposing restrictive government measures or enforcement actions.
Exchange Rates → The value of one country’s currency expressed in terms of another, affecting international travel and trade affordability.
Naturalized Citizenship → The process by which a foreign-born individual is granted citizenship of a country after meeting specific legal requirements.
Tariffs → Taxes imposed on imported goods, often used in international trade policies, potentially impacting economic relations and consumer costs.

This Article in a Nutshell

Canadian Visitors Decline: Washington State Feels the Pinch

Canadian travel to Washington State has plunged, with border traffic dropping up to 45%. Blame fluctuating exchange rates, political tensions, and strict immigration policies. Once vibrant border town economies in Blaine and Bellingham now struggle. Rebuilding trust and boosting engagement could reverse this trend, but economic recovery remains uncertain.