Immigration Shift Threatens New Brunswick's Food Industry Workforce

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Key Takeaways

• The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan reduces permanent resident admissions by 105,000, dropping targets to 395,000 in 2025.
• New Brunswick’s food industry, reliant on immigrant labor for critical roles, faces severe workforce shortages under the new policies.
• Cuts to non-permanent residents could result in 890,000 fewer workers over two years, worsening agricultural and food processing labor gaps.

Canada’s new immigration policy changes are causing significant concerns for New Brunswick’s 🇨🇦 food industry. The province has historically depended on immigrants to keep its food sector running smoothly, but recent shifts in policy may deeply affect this reliance. The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, announced by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on October 24, 2024, significantly reduces the overall immigration targets for the coming years. With fewer immigrants coming into the country, New Brunswick’s food industry could face severe labor shortages, threatening its stability and ability to meet consumer demand.

The most immediate and concerning issue is the reduction in Canada’s overall immigration numbers. The new plan decreases the number of permanent residents admitted to Canada by 105,000 from 2024 to 2025. Specifically, the target drops from 500,000 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025. This significant reduction is expected to hit New Brunswick’s food industry particularly hard, as the sector relies heavily on immigrants to fill key roles in farming, food processing, and specialty food stores. Without enough workers, the province’s ability to maintain essential food production and delivery may falter.

Immigration Shift Threatens New Brunswick’s Food Industry Workforce

The situation for specialty food stores in the province is already challenging, and the new immigration policies could make things worse. This industry is projected to decline by 1.1% annually to $70.6 million by 2025. Specialty food stores often cater to diverse cultural communities, providing unique products that reflect global cuisines. These operations largely depend on immigrant business owners and workers. With fewer immigrants entering Canada under the new policy, many of these stores may struggle to survive, reducing consumer choice and cultural diversity in the market.

Similarly, New Brunswick’s fast food sector, which employs a large number of immigrants, is also expected to face difficulties. The industry’s revenue is projected to drop by 1.3% annually to reach $637.8 million in 2024. This decline could worsen under the new immigration rules. Labor shortages may force some fast food restaurants to cut operating hours, increase automation, or even shut down. While automation could fill certain roles, it would reduce job opportunities for newcomers and local workers alike.

An important feature of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan is its focus on admitting immigrants who are already in Canada. More than 40% of immigrants admitted in 2025 will be individuals who are either students or temporary workers living in the country. While this policy may stabilize some sectors, it poses a problem for New Brunswick’s food industry, which often depends on new immigrants to take on entry-level jobs in agriculture and food processing. These roles are critical to ensuring that food systems continue functioning efficiently.

Another critical shift in the new immigration policies is the plan to lower the proportion of non-permanent residents in Canada. The aim is to reduce this group from 6.5% to 5% of the total population. This change could result in 890,000 fewer non-permanent residents over the next two years. Many individuals in this category work in essential, short-term roles, often in agriculture and food processing plants. If this reduction goes forward, New Brunswick’s food industry may lose a vital part of its workforce, aggravating existing labor shortages.

The new emphasis on admitting more French-speaking immigrants also raises questions about its effects on New Brunswick. Starting in 2025, 8.5% of new permanent residents will need to be French speakers living outside Quebec, and this target will increase to 10% by 2027. While New Brunswick, as Canada’s only bilingual province, could stand to benefit from this policy, the effects likely won’t address the specific labor needs of its food industry. Most jobs in food production require hands-on experience and specialized skills, which language proficiency alone cannot provide.

These immigration changes come at a time when New Brunswick is implementing its Local Food and Beverages Strategy (2021-2025). The strategy was designed by the Department of Agriculture, Aquaculture and Fisheries (DAAF) to increase the province’s food self-sufficiency and strengthen the entire food system. However, the success of this plan depends heavily on having enough workers to manage farming, processing, and distribution. With fewer immigrants entering the food sector under the new policy, the province may not meet its goals of producing more local food.

Currently, New Brunswick already struggles with food self-sufficiency. For example, the province produces only 7% of its vegetables, 32% of its fruits, 45% of its beef and veal, 22% of its pork, and 64% of its grain and oilseeds. These figures highlight the province’s dependence on imports to meet its food needs. A further reduction in the local workforce could jeopardize efforts to improve food production, leading to increased reliance on imports. This could also drive up food prices for consumers, adding another layer of strain.

Even the alcoholic beverage industry in New Brunswick may face setbacks as a result of these immigration policy changes. This thriving sector currently employs over 600 workers spread across 48 different communities. Immigrants often bring innovative ideas and diverse perspectives, which have helped the sector grow. Without the influx of new workers and ideas, growth in this industry may slow, limiting its contribution to local economic development.

Adding to these challenges, food prices in New Brunswick are projected to increase by 3.1% in 2025, according to Canada’s Food Price Report. Although this increase is slightly below the national average, the labor shortages caused by the new immigration policies could make matters worse. With fewer workers to manage food production and processing, operational costs may rise, pushing food prices even higher and making it difficult for many families to afford basic items.

Finally, changing rules for international students could indirectly affect New Brunswick’s food industry. Policies like ending the Student Direct Stream (SDS) program and imposing new requirements for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWP) could lead to a drop in the number of international students in the province. Many students work part-time in food service jobs while studying, and some transition to full-time roles in the food industry after graduation. A decline in this workforce could lead to more layoffs and closures in food-related businesses.

In conclusion, New Brunswick 🇨🇦 is at risk of facing significant challenges in its food industry as a result of Canada’s new immigration policies. The reduction in immigration targets, shift towards already-resident individuals, and cuts in non-permanent residents could cause severe workforce shortages. These issues, combined with existing gaps in food production and forecasted increases in food prices, pose a substantial threat to the industry’s future. As reported by VisaVerge.com, New Brunswick’s response will require creative solutions, including provincial programs to attract skilled workers or investments in automation to fill the gaps left by reduced immigration. For further reference, visit IRCC’s official page on immigration levels at IRCC Immigration Levels.

Learn Today

Immigration Levels Plan → A government strategy outlining the number and categories of immigrants Canada aims to admit over specific years.
Non-permanent Residents → Individuals temporarily living in a country, such as international workers or students, without permanent residency status.
Specialty Food Stores → Retail businesses offering unique or culturally specific food products, often serving diverse immigrant communities.
Food Self-Sufficiency → The ability of a region to produce enough food locally to meet its population’s consumption needs.
Student Direct Stream (SDS) → A Canadian program simplifying the study permit process for eligible international students from specific countries.

This Article in a Nutshell

Canada’s new immigration policies jeopardize New Brunswick’s food industry, which relies on immigrant labor for farming, food processing, and specialty stores. Reduced immigration targets and fewer non-permanent residents could cause severe workforce shortages. Without innovative solutions, this labor crisis risks destabilizing food systems, increasing prices, and diminishing cultural diversity in the province’s markets.
— By VisaVerge.com